We assume you have had your fill of Elon Musk news and the on-again, off-again, on-again settlement with the SEC. One piece of good news for Tesla shareholders: production of the Tesla 3’s beat third quarter estimates. However, it seems Tesla is still struggling to get the 3’s into the eager hands of its customers. WSJ (“Tesla Meets Model 3 Production Goal, but Struggles With Deliveries”.) In this week’s blog, we discuss the speed of electric vehicle (EV) adoption, continued moves to set a deadlines for the death of the internal combustion engine (ICE). We also discuss Audi’s speedy roll back in less than a month from its splashy commitment in San Francisco to an EV future. Lucid does a deal with Electrify America to take on Tesla. Finally, an admission from a federal agency that climate change is likely to result in a 4 degree rise in global temperatures by the end of the century (time for Elon to build the Tesla Ark?).
One of our favorite data visualizers is Raconteur. Taking Morgan Stanley analytics, Raconteur created the following graphical representation illustrating the effects of exponential growth and tipping points. Raconteur (“Electrifying Autos”.) By the way, if you would like a recommendation for a book to teach your children the value of exponential growth and compounding may we recommend One Grain of Rice: A Mathematical Folktale.
Denmark joins the ICE Ban Club
Denmark has announced a ban on ICE’s from 2030. Bloomberg (“Denmark to Ban Sale of Fossil Fuel Cars in 2030, Boost EV Sales”.) Denmark joins a host of countries, states and cities that have announced plans to phase out diesels and then all ICE’s.
Quartz (“Nine countries say they’ll ban internal combustion engines. So far, it’s just words.”) In addition, the European Union is considering a quota on EV sales. Under the proposal, car makers would have to ensure that 40% of their new car sales are EV’s by 2030. Irish Times (“EU prepares to vote on electric vehicle quota”.) Many of these plans are aspirational and are hardly challenging. However, it does send a clear message that, to meet climate and emissions goals, zero emission vehicles must be the future.
Audi made a splash with its launch event last month in San Francisco for the e-tron It convinced many that it was finally serious about producing all electric cars. However, less than a month later, Audi announced that it would not hold inventory of the e-tron in the US. Instead, customers will be required to make a $1,000 deposit for a future delivery. Wait times will depend on global demand and could be as much as a year. Charged (“So much for Audi’s “Tesla killer” – no e-tron inventory for US dealers.”). Hardly the full-throated commitment to EV’s.
Another Tesla killer?
Lucid motors, who recently raised $1bn from the Saudi sovereign wealth fund to develop an EV (incidentally, the same sovereign fund that Elon Musk infamously claimed would fund a take private of Tesla), has struck a deal with VW funded Electrify America.
The deal provides Lucid’s prospective drivers with access to a super charger network similar to the one already established by Tesla. Lucid has also entered into a joint venture with Samsung to produce a battery capable of charging on 350 kw charger systems (a significant improvement over the Tesla 150 kw Super Chargers). The Motley Fool (“Here’s How Lucid Motors Will Neutralize Tesla’s Supercharger Advantage”.)
Federal Highway’s Agency sees a 4-degree Celsius rise in Global Temperatures
Buried in last week’s news about the midterms, Brett Kavanaugh, and Elon Musk’s fight with the SEC, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration found that global temperatures are set to rise by a catastrophic four degrees Celsius (seven degrees Fahrenheit) by 2100. In arguing that Obama era mileage efficiency targets should be rolled back, NHTSA claimed that such a rise is already inevitable; they claim rolling back car emission standards would not have a significant impact on rising temperatures Washington Post (“Trump administration sees a 7-degree rise in global temperatures by 2100”.)